Boris Johnson, a British politician, journalist and popular historian. He has been the Member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015, has now announced to become new British Prime Minister. It could go faster than one would think. If the Tory faction can not prevent his candidacy, he has a good chance to be elected by the conservatives to the party leader this summer.
His numerous opponents inside and outside the party often say that Boris would only be lifted onto the shield in an act of despair. But in that state, the party will be, if the recent polls are true and the traditional Tories in a week as a splinter party from the European election emerge.
Since the unfortunate lower house election of 2017, as Theresa May the absolute majority loses, it is politically declared dead. Time after time she proved to be a survivalist. But now her term is irrevocably coming to an end. The postponement of the Brexit meeting to the end of October gives the Conservatives plenty of time to get rid of their unloved chairmen. The congress in September will open another boss, which is almost certain.
Mays Brexit negotiating tactics, if one likes to speak of one, has visibly failed for all. First she raised false expectations, then she answered crucial questions too late and half-heartedly. Now, not only the exit process is in ruins, but the British party system. How different should one call it when a one-topic party, Nigel Farages UK and EU referendum Party, off the clock waving more votes than the two old people’s parties together?
Mays attempt to bring the “Deal” in a fourth attempt in June by the lower house, can only be understood as a maneuver. It allows her to postpone her personal retreat a little, but it has little chance of success. The Labor Party has broken off the compromise talks with May, and a majority of her own can not muster her. There will be no orderly Brexit under this Prime Minister.
The question of who has buried this last attempt is idle. One will not want to contradict the Labor leader if he blames the “weakness and instability” of the government. A reliable compromise can not be had with the quarreling, dissolving Cabinet May. On the other hand, Corbyn never had any interest in bringing the talks to a good conclusion. He would have had to take a position that his party does not have and he does not want to wrest from her. One party wants Brexit, the other – larger – a referendum to reach the whereabouts.
The inability of British policy makers to honor the referendum outcome should now pave the way for a prime minister to give the impression of succeeding. That does not remain without effect on the EU, With Johnson – or another Brexiteer in Number 10 – the kingdom will strike a new tone in Brussels. May’s honorable attempt to negotiate with the EU “in good spirit”, at least not cutting the table, could give way, under a successor to the priority, to reaching Brexit at any cost.
Should Farage as expected, triumphing in the European elections would be interpreted as a plebiscite for a quick and, if necessary, sharp cut with Brussels. To regain the disappointed voters of the Farage Party, a May successor would probably put the EU before a clear alternative: either it removes the Northern Ireland ruling, the “backstop,” from the treaty, or the kingdom kicks in on October 31st without a contract.
It is possible that such a move will cause turmoil in the House of Commons, leading to a new election – which could change the whole game again.