Thursday, August 11, 2022

CPI expected at 7.98% YoY in Feb 19


Zain Zubair
Zain Zubair is a staff writer for World News Observer. He is studying ACCA in Pakistan. Besides Accountancy and writing pieces, he loves cooking and nature photography. Zain has attended various modern journalism workshops. Contact: [email protected]

Comparing January, it is expected that Feb’19 inflation to settle at 7.98% YoY compared to 3.80% in Feb’18 and 7.19% in Jan’19, respectively. The surge in CPI is owed to uptick in prices of food related products (Tomatoes and Chicken) which is expected to increase overall CPI given a cumulative weight of 1.79% in total CPI basket, and low base effect in SPLY.

However, a meagre decline in prices of petroleum products will remain unable to moderate rising CPI. This will take the 8MFY19 average inflation to 6.43%, which is considerably higher from 3.84% in same period last year.

On a yearly basis, increase in inflation is likely to be led by Transport (+13.6% YoY), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+12.6% YoY), Housing (+11.6% YoY), Education (+9.7% YoY) and Miscellaneous (+9.2% YoY).


Monthly Inflation to settle at 0.43%


On a monthly basis, CPI reading is expected to increase by 0.43% MoM attributable to surge in Food index by 1.11% MoM. Whereas we anticipate monthly inflation to contract by 0.16% in Feb’19 in contrast to previous seven months average monthly inflation of 0.59%.

As per three weeks Sensitive Price Index (SPI) data published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), average prices of Tomatoes, Chicken, Gur, Fresh Fruits and Sugar are expected to register a jump of 118%, 8%, 2%, 2% and 1% MoM, respectively.

On the other hand, decline in prices of essential food items like Potatoes (-6% MoM), Eggs (-5% MoM) and Fresh Vegetables (-3% MoM) will keep the food index under control.


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