Pakistan Economic Survey FY19, Key Highlights

  • Provisional GDP growth rate clocks in at 3.3%, a 9 year low
  • Pakistan’s economy is now worth USD 257bn (PKR 38,559bn).
  • Key growth sectors: Services 4.7%, Industrial 1.4% and Agriculture 0.9%.
  • Major crops witnessed a decline of 6.6%.
  • The cotton output dropped by 17.5% YoY to 9.9mn bales.
  • Sugar cane production down by 19.4% to 67.2mn tones.
  • Agriculture credit to reach at PKR 805bn in 9MFY19, 20.8% higher than same period last year.
  • Investment to GDP ratio is set to clock in at 15.5% for FY19, while Savings to GDP is targeted at 10.7% for FY19.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 7.2% (as per 11MFY19 PBS data). Food price inflation remained at 4.2%, whereas prices of non-food items surged by 9.2% in 11MFY19.
  • Fiscal deficit for FY19 has reached at 6.5% of GDP.
  • Remittances have clocked in at USD 17.9bn as per 10MFY19 SBP data. Remittances for the outgoing year are projected at USD 21.5bn while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) clocked in at USD 1.4bn during 10MFY19.
  • Current account deficit has clocked in at USD 11.6bn (4.8% of GDP) as per 10MFY19 SBP data and is targeted at 5.3% of GDP for FY19.
  • During 10MFY19, imports have clocked in at USD 44.0bn while exports have clocked in at USD 20.1bn.
  • Imports by end of the current year are estimated at ~USD 53.0bn while exports are expected to reach ~USD 23.9bn in FY19.
  • Trade deficit during 10MFY19 stands at USD 23.9bn vis-à-vis USD 25.8bn SPLY, expected to swell to USD 29.1bn by end of FY19.
  • Forex reserves have contracted to USD 15.1bn (as of 24-May-19, down 7.9% FYTD), and are targeted to settle at USD 15.5bn for FY19.
  • Income per capita has reached USD 1,497 (down by 9.4% YoY).
  • GDP growth target for FY20 is set at 4.0%.

Read also: Pakistan: Economic survey report to release today

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