A strategic scientific study proposed to coexist with the Coronavirus, imposing closure measures for 50 days, followed by loosening the restrictions of closure for 30 days, as this measure is a guarantee to reduce deaths due to HIV infection and provides a measure of protection for economies from virus losses, and the study prepared by scientists and researchers from 9 countries Around the world – CNBC broadcast it on its website on Wednesday – that a more effective alternative approach would be to replace sustainable closures with intervals with reduced periods that remain defined by social divergence controls.
The study stressed the importance of continuity in conducting virus detection tests, tracking cases and isolation strategies if the infection was proven and protecting the groups most at risk of infection in the community.
The researchers modeled different scenarios in 16 countries, including Australia, Mexico, Belgium, South Africa and Nigeria, the first – which assumes no closure and social divergence measures – indicates a jump in the number of patients who need to receive intensive care, which may result in a rise in The number of deaths to 7.8 million deaths in the countries surveyed, as this may extend the duration of the virus for a period of 200 days in the majority of these countries.
The second scenario, according to the study, includes 50 days of reduced closing restrictions (without imposing a full closure) and then raising it for a month. This may cause the virus reproduction rate to decrease to 0.8% in all countries and may be effective for the first 3 months of implementing the plan, However, the number of patients expected to be in need of intensive care may exceed the capacity of hospitals later, and thus will lead to the loss of 3.5 million people, their lives by about 16 countries studied, and extends the duration of the virus by about 12 months in high-income countries and at least 18 months in countries. The other.
The third scenario proposed and chosen by the researchers as the most effective strategy includes tightening the closure restrictions for 50 days within 30 days of easing the restrictions, which will lead to a faster reduction in the rate of new infections to 0.5% and the demand for intensive health care remains within the scope of the health sector in Countries studied.
Despite the study’s expectation that the virus will remain for 18 months inside all countries due to the possibility that new infections will remain at the end of each wave, it considered that the third scenario guarantees a low death rate compared to the above-mentioned scenarios to reach 130 thousand deaths in 16 countries, and the study indicated However, it is the responsibility of each individual country to determine the periods of loosening the restrictions of the virus in proportion to its internal needs and capabilities.
Rajiv Chowdhury, a public health and epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge who is overseeing the study, said: “Imposing a complete closure for an additional 3 months may be the best solution to completely eliminate the virus, but the third scenario, which includes reduced periods of restrictions, allows people to breathe a sigh of relief and avoid a measure of Economic shocks.“